dismal pandemic forecast for UK health service

This story describes estimates of unmanageable demands expected on the British health services in the case of an H5N1 pandemic.

In the “peak week”, the report says, 4.5 million cases will emerge. Of those, four per cent would need hospital care, requiring 166,000 beds. About 54,000 victims would need intensive care.

However, the entire National Health Service has only 159,600 beds available each week, including just 3,900 ITU beds. The death rate from any pandemic is estimated at 2.5 per cent – 525,000 people. The Home Office has already warned that families might have to wait up to four months to bury their dead and that mass graves could be used.

Dr Martin Shalley, the president of the British Association of Accident and Emergency Medicine, said: “The first time we saw these figures our mouths fell open. It is every doctor’s worst nightmare. There are plans in place, but there is the potential for meltdown.

“It is obvious that no hospital is going to have the capacity to cope with anything like this and a huge percentage of health care workers are going to get sick. Hospitals will be inundated with huge numbers of patients and doctors will have to make some difficult judgements.”

It should come as no surprise when our own health system in the U.S. goes tits up during the first wave of a pandemic. A survey already discovered forty-two percent of health care workers won’t show up for work in a pandemic. They don’t want to die any more than you do, nor do they want to carry H5N1 home to their families.

So, I’ve said this before and I guess I’ll say it again: if, and that is IF, the H5N1 balloon goes up, you need to have thought ahead. When everybody’s coming down sick it’s a little late to learn how to take care of a sick family member, or to set aside groceries and bottled water for at least two weeks at home. You have to know how to handle things on your own to some extent if the hospitals are overloaded. Now’s the time to do some basic thinking ahead about contingencies. There is helpful information to be found at fluwikie to get you started.