Palestinian militant groups and Hizballah have demonstrated some alarming new rocket and missile capabilities with longer ranges in the recent hostilities, and some militants claim capabilities not yet demonstrated, including chemical and biological warheads. Their willingness to reveal possession of new and highly valuable systems may be linked to both the increasingly active Palestinian intifada and Israeli military response to kidnappings, and the US-Iran nuclear tensions and Iran’s desire to head off a possible attack. The various types of rockets in Palestinian militia and Lebanese Hizballah possession and their chemical capabilities include:
Qassam - These are the Palestinians’ homemade, unguided rockets. HAMAS fired the first of the new version of its homemade Qassam-2 on the 4th of July, hitting Ashkelon. It is a 115mm rocket has an increased range of 12km, using a twin engine design. Recently, Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed it fired a rocket with a chemical warhead, also claiming it had developed both chemical and biological warheads. The Israelis discounted the claim, however, this rocket should be capable of delivering a small chemical payload.
Katyusha - Soviet-era 122mm Grad-series rockets with known range of just over 20km. An Iranian version may reach up to 29km. While there are Grad truck mounted multiple launch systems, the Grad-P is a single-round, man-portable, reusable launcher. Assumed to have been originally obtained from Iran, Palestinian Islamic Jihad may be making their own version in local rocket workshops already producing the Qassams. The 122mm Grad rocket has many variants; generally it weighs around 75kg and carries a warhead up to 19kg, and may carry a chemical payload.
C-802 – A sophisticated Chinese anti-ship cruise missile sold to Iran. Has a range of 120km and a 165kg warhead, chemical unlikely. It is a difficult to detect surface-skimming missile with an high accuracy, 98% likely to reach its target.
Fajr-3 – Some confusion surrounds this system and possession by Palestinians is unclear, but Israel claims Hizballah has hundreds. Fajr-3 may be an Iranian 240 mm unguided rocket with a range of 70 km, but also reported to be a surface-to-air missile with a range of 45km, or a MRBM similar to Shahab-3. A Kuwaiti news source reported the Fajr-3 can evade radar detection and hit multiple targets simultaneously. If it is the former (240mm rocket), I have seen a rocket of this designation also called a Katyusha, and would expect it to be capable of carrying a chemical warhead.
[Update - Federation of American Scientists says this about the Fajr-3: The 240-millimeter Fajr-3 missile has a range of 25 miles. Production of the Fajr-3 missile is estimated to have started as early as 1991. Fajr-3 has the same caliber, range and warhead weight as three known North Korean systems. Some believe the missile was constructed by the Iranians, but reportedly with help from North Korea and/or China.]
[Update 2: Further confusion on the Fajr-3. This Hezbollah rocket overview says the Fajr-3 is the Ra'ad, which al-Manar TV named as the rocket used against Haifa, describing it as a 333 mm rocket. However, GlobalSecurity says the picture that was shown on al-Manar matches up to the Shahin-1. In any case, NTI says the Fajr-3 may be armed with a chemical warhead, and the Shahin can likely do so, as well, so if the Ra'ad is either, it can be chemically armed.]
[Update 3: Israel said last week that it hit a Zelzal missile launcher (see photo, left) in Lebanon. The Zelzal-1/2/3 have ranges of 150 to 400 km, are unguided, and carry a 600kg warhead. Various sources report it may carry a chemical warhead.]
[Update 4: Hizballah continues to roll out surprises. Yesterday it fired its Fajr-3 (see above), confirming Israeli claims. Hizballah called the rocket a Khaiber-1. To clear up the confusion above, various sources seem to agree this is a 240-mm unguided rocket with a range of about 45km, and is essentially a late-generation Katyusha. Is it chemical-capable? No definitive answer, but a few sources indicate it could be, and I have to agree there is no reason it would not have been designed for a mod with a chemical warhead.]
[Update - July '07, hopefully the last word on the Fajr-3!
- Fajr-3 Unguided Artillery Rocket, 240mm
- Length: 5.2m / Weight: 407kg
- Warhead: 45kg (HE, fragmentation, CBRN capable)
- Range: 45km (estimated) /Accuracy: 1km deviation at extreme range
"The Fajr-3 is an Iranian-manufactured multiple-launch artillery rocket. At 5.2m in length and with 240mm-calibre, the Fajr-3 is easily distinguishable from the smaller calibre 107mm and 122mm Katyusha’ and ‘Grad’ type rockets currently in regular use." I haven't been updating this post much, but the latest news is that now it's not just Hizballah with the Fajr-3s. The Shia militants in Iraq now have their own supply of these rockets. But the good news is that their accuracy is crap and they're big so they'll be tough to move and conceal.]
Thoughts on the likelihood of a Hizballah or Palestinian chemical rocket attack:
BLUF – not likely with chemical warfare agents. If militants do manage to carry through on threats of chemical attack, I think they will have synthesized the agents locally. If any clandestine technical support was provided by either Iranian or Syrian entities, it would probably never be proved. There are currently news stories in which Israelis claim IRGC personnel are actually firing missiles from Lebanon, but true or not, this kind of direct assistance is less likely in the case of actual chemical weapons – as has been noted by Jonathan Tucker and others, when it comes to WMD, states will be reticent to lose control or be outed as the culprit. What they’d probably need the most help with would be obtaining precursors, and providing them would involve risk of discovery, as well.
We might see them attempting to use other toxic industrial chemicals and claiming they were chemical warfare agents. While the rest of the world will probably ho-hum their claims, their own constituency will believe it’s a major milestone and other terrorist groups will be even more motivated to undertake chemical attacks.
Tags:Qassam,C-802,Katyusha,Palestinian,rocket,missile,Lebanon,Gaza,
Hizballah,Hezbollah,Al-Aqsa,HAMAS,PIJ,Raad,Shahin,Zelzal,Khaiber,Fajr
Filed under: chemical weapons, iran, iraq, terrorism
I mostly agree with you on this. However, the missing Iraqi precursors that are assumed to have gone to Syria or the Bekkaa Valley. Hezballah has access to both of these and can be assumed to have some massive stores. I kept waiting for them to be used last summer during the Israeli offensive.
I think they are being prepared for an assault into Israel. Just a theory, but based upon some scattered facts. Not sure how they will be used, since their military does not train for NBC war. I think it will just be used to contaminate areas in cities to slaughter civilians and the Israeli military will divert forces over to help the civilians instead of fighting on the front lines. Just a theory.
What do you think? Possible?
I think that’s an unlikely scenario, and I can’t comment on any speculation about where precursors may have been moved to. I do think if Hizballah had access to anything useful last year they would have used it.
[...] to civilian areas and residential housing as possible. Hamas launches almost continuous barrages of Qassam rockets against Sderot, Ashkelon, and pretty much anywhere else within reach of whatever they can [...]